Publications
2025 Outlook – Second Half
The first six months of 2025 have reshaped our view of global macroeconomic dynamics. A sequence of unexpected events has led us to reassessour convictions and adjust our positioning.
The “Liberation Day“ in the United States acted as a shockwave: the new government’s initial measures were unexpectedly harsh and unpredictable, triggering significant turbulence in financial markets.
At the same time, Europe initiated a major fiscal shift, with a dramatic increase in defense spending plans, redefining its priorities amid an increasingly fragmented geopolitical landscape. Central banks are diverging further; the Fed remains on hold while the ECB continues its easing cycle. Geopolitical tensions have escalated further, particularly with the U.S. intervention in Iran. As we enter the second half of the year, uncertainty remains high. And yet the U.S. economy shows remarkable resilience, supporting financial markets that, despite volatility, ended the semester at or even above historical highs. In this complex yet opportunity-rich environment, our approach for H2 2025 is designed to provide strong anchors for your portfolios while enhancing the agility required to navigate the volatility of this new landscape.
👉 Download the full report and get equipped for the months ahead: Outlook - H2 - 2025
• UNITED STATES: The major political shock increases uncertainty and widens the deficit, but the economy remains resilient.
• EUROPE: Authorities are coordinating fiscal and monetary stimulus, thereby supporting growth; meanwhile valuations remain attractive.
• EMERGING MARKETS: Fundamentals are improving, stimulus policies remain in place, and valuations are appealing.
• EQUITIES: Caution is advised in the US, while Europe and Asia are favoured, with a focus on AI and industrial sectors.
• BONDS: Exposure to emerging debt is increasing, while the defensive role of sovereign bonds is being maintained.
• CURRENCIES: The dollar is in clear decline, reflecting a structural weakening linked to political and fiscal uncertainty.
July 10, 2025
Publications
Publications
The Myth of Perfect Timing in InvestingEvery investor has fantasized about making the perfect trade—buying low and selling high within a very short time frame.
July 01, 2025
Publications
Letter from the CIO - June 2025Market rebound: Trade détente eases uncertainty, but risks remain
June 12, 2025
Publications
Withdrawals from the 2nd/3rd Pillars: Will Taxation Change the Game?The Federal Council proposes higher taxes on lump-sum withdrawals from the 2nd and 3rd pillars to align them with pension taxation and support social insurance amid demographic and budgetary pressures.
June 03, 2025